Who Wins if Microsoft Dies

Springtime in the northern hemisphere, must be Microsoft hunting season. The Inquirer kicks off with a piece pleasantly titled, “Microsoft is in deep trouble and now it is going to die”. Man the life rafts! Seems folks on the north end of the globe stumble out after their winter slumber, rub their eyes, and say, “What?! Is Microsoft still alive?”

Yep, ‘fraid so.

In that article by the Inquirer, the author writes, “Microsoft has lost its ability to twist arms, and now it is going to die.”

Ironically, one of the news items referred to in it says MS wants to double its user base to 2 billion people. Is a company with 1 billion users really in its death throes?

That arm-twisting ability is in direct reference to Dell giving users the choice of Vista or Windows XP. The author assumes no vendor has ever done such a thing before, yet Windows 2000 was still an option on Dell PCs long after Windows XP was released. In my previous life as an IT manager, we didn’t start buying XP-equipped Dells until XP SP1 was available.

Now, before we get too far, I must state my own feelings on Microsoft: it’d make a great applications company. I like much of the software Microsoft makes; however, its OSes I have more issues with. MS office, for instance, is no better and no worse than most other apps on the Mac. For all its shortcomings, it has a lot going for it as well. If it wasn’t made by MS, most of us would like it. Ironically, many people are happy using its clones.

If you woke up tomorrow and heard MS had closed shop, you’d expect Apple to expand to fill the void. The Linux crew would like to think Linux would, but with what? Which version of Linux would the corporate world latch onto? Which would the home user punt on? It’d be 1984 all over again, with every man and his penguin fighting for your desktop.

Microsoft might fall over and die. Okay, really, I’m just saying that to appear objective. Personally, MS is here for the long haul.

Think about how extensive its grip on the computing world is. If Microsoft ceased to exist, cold-stone-dead, tomorrow, the corporate world would hang onto its OSes and applications as long as possible. That in itself could last years. What would accelerate the demise of that software would be security issues. With no Microsoft around to patch new holes, the corporate hand would be forced more quickly than desired.

So, over the course of several years, all users would begin transitioning to another OS. Apple, with extensive cross platform applications such as the Adobe apps, and the ability to provide full legacy support for Windows to smooth the transition, would be well placed to take Microsoft’s place as the dominant OS supplier in the world. Well, until platform irrelevance becomes the norm.

So that’s the up side. Apple wins! Of great concern, though, would be the cost.

Every developer of Windows applications would have to switch development to other platforms. Given that it’d be too early to hedge bets, it might lead to massive development on platform independent systems, such as Java and the web. If that happens, one of the key stumbling blocks to the adoption of Linux would be removed. So Apple might not win after all. Better put down those pitchforks and other farm implements you were waving menacingly at Microsoft.

The financial impact of redevelopment and switching would be staggering and, with businesses having to spend so much in that area over a short time, could drive the world back into a major depression. Although the really big corporations would benefit as they’d buy up all the major software developers.

Despite saying Microsoft is here for the long haul, I would never argue that Windows won’t die; after all, the IBM PC did. The difference though, is that anyone could make a PC, whereas only MS can make Windows.

Who’d have ever thought IBM, who defined the PC, could ever fall into irrelevance in the PC industry? Many Baby Boomers and a fair few older Generation Xers still refer to PCs as IBM-compatibles. IBM itself, though, survived by having its fingers in many pies. As does Microsoft.

However, Microsoft’s Windows does still have the same desktop fight as everyone.

The likely path of the next decade or two is a transition to platform irrelevance at the desktop. Apple Computer, Inc., will need to become simply Apple, Inc., and have its fingers in other pies if it is to survive with some relevancy. (Oh right, of course, it has already done that.)

Microsoft, although possibly losing its desktop dominance, will roll on and its OSes will still dominate, albeit out of sight on servers. And its applications will still command majority shares of their markets.

Rumors of Microsoft’s impending death have been greatly exaggerated. Microsoft is here to stay—in one form or another—for a very long time. And its applications really aren’t that bad, just a bit bloated.

A quick death for MS would be disastrous for the majority of the world. The majority of the world runs some form of Windows. Some crazy countries’ defense forces even run it in mission critical environments.

So, long live Microsoft, may it die off slowly.