Nemin: Apple is now and has always been a hardware company as well as a software company, and the XP on Mac benchmarks show that Apple makes damn good computers. If someone wants to buy a copy of OS X and run it on a cheap PC, why would that be bad for Apple? They still make money. Plus there's no reason to think that a person who decides to run OS X on a PC ever planned to buy a Mac, so it's not like Apple is losing a hardware sale. Anyway most people don't want to rely on a hacked OS. I think you underestimate the appeal of Apple hardware, and overestimate the appeal of running a superior OS on crappy hardware.
I use Photoshop and FCP every day, but most of the people in my office only use MS Office, email client, and web browser. I'm not sure where that 90%-10% comes from, but as far as I can tell most users don't ever run really demanding apps.
The more interesting stat is that something like 80% of users never change the settings on their computer after the initial set-up. For those people online data storage and apps will make perfect sense, regardless of the thin-client issue. They also won't care about having all the features of the full version, and might even prefer a OfficeLite type product.
The way Google's doing it the issue with web-based apps revolves around advertising, so the key for MS is to get people using their web-apps asap. Once I've got all my files on Microsoft's server, I'll probably never change to a different application--even if I switch OSs. A free web-based MS OfficeLite that will keep a user coming back forever provides ad revenue for the lifetime of that user--which may be more profitable then selling them software.
Definitely Adobe. As a longtime video geek I have always dreamed of a fusion of Photoshop, AfterEffects, and a real video editing app, meaning Avid or FCP. Premiere is not a serious player and should have been killed off years ago. Apple has spent money on Shake and Motion, but AfterEffects is still the standard for most people. A merger of the two companies would allow them to streamline development in the video and motion graphics sector. With Apple now trying to push further in to Avid's domain with Final Cut Extreme, an Adobe acquisition makes a lot of sense.
Add to that the the whole Macromedia catalogue, and you would have Apple as a leader in video, graphics, and web design.
There would probably be major regulatory issues though.
What will Apple look like by 2010?
Microsoft's Precarious Moment
Who Apple Should Buy With Their $7 Billion