Podcasts are Here to Stay (and that is a Scary Thought)

When Hadley Stern opined that podcasting would be dead within a year the notion gave me serious pause. After all I am involved in a podcast in a very small way and, since I lack any natural ability, I put a lot of work into each segment. I’d hate to think all my efforts would be for naught within a year. Clearly some research was needed. Was Hadley right? Is podcasting nothing more than a short-lived fad? To make the decision I listened to a weekend worth of podcasts. My conclusion: podcasts aren’t going away any time soon but I sure wish most of them would.

Podcasting has been around forever

The biggest reason podcasts aren’t going anywhere can be evidenced by the fact that internet broadcasting has been going on for years. Your Mac Life, for instance, is positively ancient in terms of the ‘net.  That is just one example, there are plenty of other shows you can listen to over the internet and, in fact, many of them have been streaming for more than a few years. Perhaps the bigger surprise is not the sudden popularity of podcasting but that internet radio took so long before reaching the current level of popularity. The talk radio hounds among us will recall the rise and fall popular shows to charge people to listen to their programs “on demand.” At this point some will note that there are technical differences between a radio stream and a podcast. The statement is true but quibbling, the only real difference between podcasting and the more familiar method of audio content is streaming, a difference discussed below.

Why the sudden popularity?

Because internet radio has been around since the days of 33k dial up (possibly earlier) it would be natural to wonder why podcasting is suddenly all the rage. Turns out that podcasting owes its popularity to a confluence of factors, each one necessary for podcasting to catch fire. The first piece of the puzzle was the wide acceptance of mp3 players. Once iPods were being scarfed up by the masses you were no longer forced to be in near proximity to the computer to listen internet provided audio content. The second factor facilitating the podcasting revolution is the widespread adoption of broadband service. Pre broadband most folks would balk at an 8 MB to 15 MB download for a thirty minute show (which explains the allure of streaming audio). Now a download of that length takes mere moments so streaming has become largely unnecessary. The final factor that has helped propel podcasts into prime time is the rise in popularity of RSS feeds. Properly configured programs can make getting your favorite podcasts on your mp3 player nearly automatic (or so they tell me, lacking an iPod I can’t personally vouch for the ease of use).

The Downside of Podcasting

As previously noted some people think that podcasting is little more than a passing fad, something that will be popular for a few heartbeats before becoming footnote on the internet landscape. This is an understandable, even hopeful, wish. After spending a fair chunk of the weekend listening to various podcasts I can say with some authority (cause I used to produce talk radio shows) that the vast VAST VERY FREAKING VAST majority of podcasts are horrible. Allow me to be a little more forceful when I use the word horrible. When I say horrible I mean worse than college radio. I mean worse than a disease you’re likely to pick up on a port call as a merchant marine. I mean most podcasts are so bad that if someone gave you a choice between listening daily and living the rest of your life with constant bouts of explosive diarrhea you’d have to think long and hard before choosing. Of course there is nothing unique about that fact. Most blogs aren’t very good and most web pages are badly designed. You’re likely to forget this because, by now, you’ve got a solid collection of favorites and aren’t likely to run across the numerous, but unpopular, very poorly done web pages.

The Future of Podcasting

At this moment the podscape, as previously noted, is filled with the poorly produced, amateurish shows of questionable utility. Don’t expect that to last, Bill O’Reilly has, for example, recently added mp3 downloads. That trend will continue, radio is a for profit business and more listeners mean more advertising dollars. As more and more pro content comes along there is a very good chance that a lot of home brewed podcasts will go unnoticed. A few really well done podcasts will rise up and be embraced but many more will be essentially drowned out by the coming wave of commercial podcasts. That isn’t to say that horrible podcasts will go the way of the Carolina Parakeet. Indeed you’ll still be able to find self-referential podcasts that meander from the amusingly inane all the way to the equivalent of audio assault and battery, you’ll just have a plethora of decent options as well…I hope.